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 （1995年纽约时报的一片专栏文章，现在读起来还是很有寓意，就像第一眼看到标题感受什么才是“过眼云烟”般的辉煌一样。特此，拿来分享，另附原文，因为文笔很赞。） 欢迎“潜水员”们评论！大家一起分享感受。

  历史走进了一个新的千年，纽约成了全世界最重要的城市。虽然没什么官方认可，但说是世界的首都恐怕没人会不同意。然而，我们这些纽约客切不可狂妄自大，回望中国中部消失在历史尘埃里的大都会开封，也许会使我们更清醒。 
  公元1000年，坐落在泥沙淤塞的黄河岸边的古城开封，是世界上最重要的城市。我这篇文章用了个汉语标题，叫做《辉煌如过眼烟云》，这样做是为了说明汉语是许多美国人将来都要去学习的语言，而“繁华如梦”的哲理也是美国人需要了解的。 
  作为世界上唯一的超级大国，美国也许会认为自己在世界上这种“一览众山小”的地位是理所当然的。然而，回望大浪淘沙般的历史长河，你会看到辉煌，特别是某一个城市的辉煌，多么像萤火般转瞬即逝,也会为这种无常的兴替感到震惊。 
  在我看来，公元前2000年之前世界上最重要城市是伊拉克的乌尔，公元前1500年之前，也许是埃及的底比斯。公元前1000年，很难说哪个城市有绝对优势，不过很多人会认为是黎巴嫩的西顿。公元前500年是波斯的波斯波利斯；公元一年是罗马；公元500年前后也许是中国的长安；公元一千年是中国的开封；公元1500年是意大利的佛罗伦萨，公元2000年是纽约；到了公元2500年，上述这些城市可能一个都不再能挨上边儿。 
  今天的开封肮脏贫穷，连个省会也不是，地位无足轻重，所以连机场都没有。这种破落相更让我们看清楚了财富聚散的无常。11世纪的开封是宋朝的首都，人口超过一百万，而当时伦敦的人口只有15,000左右。 
  北京的故宫博物院藏有一幅长达17英尺的古画（指清明上河图——译者），展示了古代开封的繁华：街道上行人如织，摩肩擦踵，驼队载着商品沿着丝绸之路云集而来，茶楼酒肆熙熙攘攘，生意兴隆。 
  开封的地位吸引了世界各地的人们，包括成百的犹太人。在今天的开封还可以看到一些犹太后裔，他们的面貌和一般中国人并无二致，却声称自己是犹太人，从来不吃猪肉。 
  漫步在开封街头，我不停问讯当地居民为什么一个曾经的国际大都会却沦落到如此模样，从他们的回答里我听到了不少开封人对纽约的羡慕。有一个男子说他准备偷渡到美国，给一个人蛇集团交了25,000美元。不过，当地的许多人坚持认为，中国已经上了路，正在朝着恢复自己的大国地位的目标迈进。 
  “中国越来越红火。”开封市郊一位名叫王瑞娜（译音）年轻农妇说，“再过几十年，我们就会赶上美国，说不定还能超过美国呢！”   她说得对。在一个多世纪里，美国拥有全世界最繁荣的经济。但许多人预测，按实际购买力计算，再过15年中国的经济将超过美国。 
  那么，从开封衰落的历史里，纽约能学到些什么呢？ 
  教训之一是保持科技活力，实行正确的经济政策。古代中国繁荣的原因之一，是采取促进经济增长，促进贸易往来的政策，鼓励技术创新，如铁铧犁、印刷术、纸币等方面的技术革新。等到后来中国重农轻商，它的个人所得便不再增长了，一停就停了六百年。教训之二是要避免狂妄自大。当时的中国认为无须向外国学习——中国的衰败也就从此开始了。 
  从这两方面看，我都为美国捏一把汗。美国目前经济管理懈怠，无法解决农业补助或长期预算赤字问题。技术虽然领先，但公立中小学学生的数学和科学水平只能算作二流。美国人对外国缺乏兴趣，这与中国人勉力进取、发奋向上、意志坚定的面貌形成了鲜明对比。中国人就是靠这种斗志再次走向了世界的前沿。 
  在黄河边上，我遇到了一个70岁的农民，名叫郝望（译音），一天学也没有上过，连自己的名字都不会写，但他的儿孙辈却大不一样了。“俺家俩孙娃儿都上了大学，”他得意地说。说完，又开始谈论家里的电脑。 
  思考开封的兴衰，使我们猛醒。我们应该不懈奋斗，改进我们的高技术创新力，增强教育实力，改善促进经济增长的政策。如果我们在经济繁荣的桂冠下流连不前，即使像纽约这样伟大的城市，也总有一天会堕落为哈得逊河上的开封。

Cong Kaifeng Dao New York― Glory is as Ephemeral as Smoke and Clouds
Nicholas D. Kristof
The New York Times

As this millennium dawns, New York is considered to be the most important city in the world, the unofficial capital of planet Earth. But before New Yorkers become too full of themselves, it might be worthwhile to glance at dilapidated Kaifeng in central China.
Kaifeng, an ancient city along the mud-clogged Yellow River, was by far the most important place in the world in A.D. 1000. And if you've never heard of it, that's a useful warning for Americans. As expressed in this column's headline ― translated from Chinese, a language of the future that more Americans should start learning― "glory is as ephemeral as smoke and clouds."
As the world's only superpower, America may look today as if global domination is an entitlement. But if you look back at the sweep of history, it's striking how fleeting supremacy is, particularly for individual cities.
My vote for most important city in the world in the period leading up to 2000 B.C. would be Ur, Iraq. In 1500 B.C., perhaps Thebes, Egypt. There was no dominant player in 1000 B.C., though one could make a case for Sidon, Lebanon. In 500 B.C., it would be Persepolis, Persia; in the year 1, Rome; around A.D. 500, maybe Changan, China; in 1000, Kaifeng, China; in 1500, probably Florence, Italy; in 2000, New York; and in 2500, probably none of the above.
Today, Kaifeng is grimy and poor, not even the provincial capital and so minor it lacks even an airport. Its sad state only underscores how fortunes change. In the 11th century, when it was the capital of Song Dynasty China, Kaifeng reached its peak of importance. It was a commercial and industrial center at the intersection of four major canals. During this time, the city was surrounded by three rings of city walls and commodities assembled from all over the world. Its population was more than one million. In contrast, London's population then was about 15,000.
An ancient painted scroll, now in the Palace Museum in Beijing, China, shows the bustle and prosperity of ancient Kaifeng. Hundreds of pedestrians jostle each other on the streets, camels carry merchandise in from the Silk Road, and teahouses and restaurants do a thriving business.
Kaifeng's stature attracted people from all over the world, including hundreds of Jews. Even today, there are some people in Kaifeng who look like other Chinese but who consider themselves Jewish and do not eat pork.
As I roamed the Kaifeng area, asking local people why such an international center had sunk so low, I encountered plenty of envy of New York. One man said he was arranging to be smuggled into the United States illegally, by paying a gang $25,000, but many local people insisted that China is on course to bounce back and recover its historic role as world leader.
"China is booming now," said Wang Ruina, a young peasant woman on the outskirts of town. "Give us a few decades, and we'll catch up with the United States, even pass it."
She's right. The United States has had the biggest economy in the world for more than a century, but most projections show that China will surpass it in about 15 years, as measured by purchasing power parity.
So what can New York learn from a city like Kaifeng?
One lesson is the importance of sustaining a technological edge and sound economic policies. Ancient China flourished partly because of pro-growth, pro-trade policies and technological innovations like curved iron plows, printing and paper money. But then China came to scorn trade and commerce, and per capita income stagnated for 600 years.
A second lesson is the danger of hubris, for China concluded it had nothing to learn from the rest of the world ― and that was the beginning of the end.
I worry about the United States in both regards. America's economic management is so lax that it can't confront farm subsidies or long-term budget deficits. American technology is strong, but public schools are second-rate in math and science. And Americans' lack of interest in the world contrasts with the restlessness, drive and determination that are again pushing China to the forefront.
Beside the Yellow River, I met a 70-year-old peasant named Hao Wang, who had never gone to a day of school. He couldn't even write his name ― and yet his progeny were different.
"Two of my grandsons are now in university," he boasted, and then he started talking about the computer in his home.
Thinking of Kaifeng should stimulate Americans to struggle to improve their high-tech edge, educational strengths and pro-growth policies. For if they rest on our laurels, even a city as great as New York may end up as Kaifeng-on-the-Hudson.

P.S. 作者简介：本文出自紐約時報的傑出資深記者Nicholas D. Kristof 之手筆。Kristof出生於美國俄勒岡州，進入哈佛大學唸書時，表現優異，其後獲得著名的牛津大學羅德獎學金 (Rhodes Scholarship)，前往研修法律。1986年起，他先後任職《時代》雜誌駐香港、北京與東京辦事處主任，並曾於1987至1988年間住在台灣，後來轉至《紐約時報》。作者中文名字「紀思道」，紀思道在1989年六四天安門事件發生時，是《紐約時報》駐北京分社的主任。